Improved demand cognizance for enhanced forecastingÂ
API is one of Australia's leading pharmaceutical distributors and growing health and beauty retailers
Parent company of Priceline Pharmacy, Soul Pattinson Chemist, Pharmacist Advice and Clear Skincare Clinics
Services: wholesale product delivery, retail services, marketing programs and business advisory services
More than 420 stores
Founded in 1910, listed on the ASX since 1997
Over 3,000 employees
Revenue of more than $3.5bn AUD
Further information: www.api.net.au
Success Story
API: Improved demand cognizance for enhanced forecasting
Challenge
Inconsistent and unrealistic forecasts led to excess inventory.
To correct the inherent problems, API decided to revamp the demand signal which was being fed to SAP UDF application.
Inconsistent and unrealistic (inflated) demand signals unsuitable for statistical analysis
Need for manual intervention to offset inflated demand
Overforecast situations despite manual interventions
Erosion in trust of system/applications by business
Solution & Benefits
Identification of the demand forecast
The project involved both retailsolutions and API teams carrying out extensive analysis of demand signals to arrive at possible combinations of demand quantity and demand dates that can be used to arrive at a demand forecast that fits API business processes.
Solution
Deep dive into issues causing inconsistencies in forecast and follow-on replenishment backed by expert data analysis
Developed a flexible framework to support different combinations of demand signals to be fed into SAP UDF
Ability to run forecast jobs with different demand data and to compare the results
Benefits
Inventory reduction in excess of $8.7m AUD driven by an annual reduction in intolerable forecast-driven overstocks
Improved the service level for A&B products to 99.5% using UDF statistical smarts
Dramatic upturn in forecast accuracy (weekly error reduction of up to 10%)
Improved responsiveness to customer demands/trends